31 Jul 2004

November 2003 - Russian industry and the government are yet unfamiliar with foresight

Center for Strategic Research "North-West"

"...cooperation could be formed using such tools as foresight. Unfortunately, as the chairman of scientific council of FKPI Alexander Dynkin told, Russian industry and the government are yet unfamiliar with it.

Such large companies as “Gazprom” can obtain necessary innovations through R&D financing and support. The mechanism of foresight could become a part that links ”corporate innovative systems” with the general course of the state innovative policy. The partnership of the state and large business should be treated as cooperation in creation and interaction of innovative systems. Such understanding would allow to link the goals and the strategy of the state with the demands of large business, so Russia would get more opportunities to become truly innovative."

30 Jul 2004

Does Russia need the foresight?

Russians decide that they do, 2003

The results of the round table of representatives from Russian ministries, science and research institutions, businesses (web page in Russian)

Is there a need and possibilities for Foresight in Russia?
Estimation of the state
What does Russia lose without Foresight?
What public forces can be interested in Russian Foresight?

Memorandum - Foresight programme prospects in Russia

29 Jul 2004

Estonia's Learning Scenarios 2015

21st Century Learning Initiative
By Krista Loogma, Rein Ruubel, Viive Ruus, Ene-Silvia Sarv, and Raivo Vilu (May 1998). Shared with the 21st Century Learning Initiative because of John Abbott's intellectual support.

"The "Estonian Education Scenarios 2015" have been compiled to facilitate a national discussion on the future of education and to invite public support for a long-term education strategy. These Scenarios are being reviewed by the Estonian President, Prime Minister and the Speaker of the Parliament, among others."

"The following scenarios were developed with the understanding that, in order to have a learning society, it is necessary to create a level of agreement and cooperation between society at large and institutions of learning. In developing the education scenarios we considered the viewpoints of the different generations and ethnic groups that make up Estonia. We also considered insights from research in psychology, pedagogy, neuroscience, philosophy, economics and other research areas that influence learning and teaching. From these many considerations we have designed four scenarios describing what education in Estonia might look like in 2015."

Latvia Background Paper Foresight Cyprus

Latvian foresight and forecasting before accession to the European Union

New foresight culture is on agenda in Europe challenging paradigms of the industrial society

Futures, Latvia, Lisbon process


28 Jul 2004

In Latvia: attempts of approaching Knowledge Society Foresight

The conceptual settings (Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight, pp.10-11) provided a background for my report European Foresight towards Sustainable Development at the international conference "Conditions of Sustainable Development: New Challenges and Prospects" (Riga, The Banking Institution of Higher Education, 10 September, 2003).

also in
Arturs Puga. Social challenges facing Latvia: problems of identification. Foresight research outputs. In: Latvia in Europe: Visions of the Future, Collection of articles, Baltic Centre for Strategic Studies, Latvian Academy of Sciences, Riga, 2004, pp. 127 – 147.

In Latvian: Arturs Puga. Sociālie izaicinājumi Latvijā: identifikācijas problēmas. Forsaita pētījumu izraises. LZA BSPC projekts "Latvija Eiropā: nākotnes vīzijas", Rīga, 2003-2004

available on-line: http://uk.geocities.com/arturspuga/EFN/izraises.pdf

the key to every man

Ralph W. Emerson, Circles

"The key to every man is his thought. Sturdy and defying though he look, he has a helm which he obeys, which is the idea after which all his facts are classified. He can only be reformed by showing him a new idea which commands his own. The life of man is a self-evolving circle, which, from a ring imperceptibly small, rushes on all sides outwards to new and larger circles, and that without end. The extent to which this generation of circles, wheel without wheel, will go, depends on the force or truth of the individual soul. For it is the inert effort of each thought, having formed itself into a circular wave of circumstance, - as, for instance, an empire, rules of an art, a local usage, a religious rite, - to heap itself on that ridge, and to solidify and hem in the life. But if the soul is quick and strong, it bursts over that boundary on all sides, and expands another orbit on the great deep, which also runs up into a high wave, with attempt again to stop and to bind. But the heart refuses to be imprisoned; in its first and narrowest pulses, it already tends outward with a vast force, and to immense and innumerable expansions."

Knowledge Society methodology (I should understand Europe and myself, we lie within the intersection of related trends)

Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight

"These [trends] are:

1. The development of information societies based on the large-scale diffusion and utilisation of new Information technologies (IT), which have allowed for unprecedented capabilities in “capturing”, processing, storing, and communicating data and information.

2. More generally than just in the IT case, the increasing importance of innovation (especially technological, but also organisational) as an element in corporate and national competitiveness, and in strategies to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of organisations of all types.

3. The development of service economies, in which the bulk of economic activity, employment, and output is taking place in service sectors of the economy, in which “service” is an important management principle in organisations in all sectors, and where specialised services (especially Knowledge-Intensive Business Services) are providing critical inputs to organisations in all sectors on a vastly increased scale.

4. Knowledge Management arises as a specific issue, as organisations seek to apply formal techniques and new information systems to help them make more effective use of their data resources (e.g. data mining), information assets (e.g. Enterprise Resource Systems) and expertise (e.g. human resource development, groupware and collaborative systems).

5. Other important developments, related to the points above, include globalisation, changes in demographic structures and in cultural practices, and environmental affairs.

The Handbook provides only highly summarised accounts of developments where there have been many disputes about their nature, and the interrelationships between the different elements."

the blog discourse framework

a learning citizen


Basics for me

(p.10) "Knowledge Society” is one term that has been
introduced in attempts to characterise some of the main developments in industrial societies in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries."

"...we suggest that a useful way of thinking about Knowledge Society (KS) is that it involves the intersection of several related trends."

24 Jul 2004

About the blog objectives

The Network (EFN) idea comes from knowledge sharing with European friends and colleagues in the EU conference "FORESIGHT FOR INNOVATION - THINKING AND DEBATING THE FUTURE; SHAPING AND ALIGNING POLICIES" (Dublin, June 14-15, 2004) and from research on LATVIA TOWARDS KNOWLEDGE SOCIETIES OF EUROPE: NEW OPTIONS FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND EMPLOYMENT ACHIEVING THE GOALS OF THE LISBON STRATEGY (Forward Studies Unit (Riga), Foresight project,2003-

We understand EFN in the making as
1) a net of interaction between individuals, organizations, enterprises;
2) a useful conceptual framework for knowledge (tacit and explicit) fusion, targeting, management aiming at possible futures for policies and strategies.

It is about the entrepreneurship ( in broader sense) mindset and activities for economic, social and environmental renewal in the Enlarged Europe. EFN could be a think-do community for the Lisbon strategy to implement the commitment 2000 - 2010.

Everybody is invited to join us. Thinking, debating, knowledge sharing and creating the future together.

Presently, EFN blog languages are English and Latvian.

Corporate Foresight in Europe: a first overview, by Patrick Becker

Available from
Science and Technology Foresight, CORDIS

Dr Ted Fuller

Professor of Entrepreneurship and Strategic Foresight

We can use a lot of knowledge on entrepreneurial foresight via Ted Fuller's research methodology, e-publications and presentations. The best for innovative learning.

Working poor in the European Union (report) , 2004

European Foundation: Publications

Creating the Conscious Organization: The art of intelligence-making for strategic navigation

Written by Richard Hames
"Organisations are most inclined to remain viable if they are able to steer a secure course through the dynamic turbulence of their environments, at the same time achieving improved results for all their stakeholders. Viability requires that they be intimately connected with their external world in ways that promote mutual learning, responsiveness and adaptiveness. It also necessitates continuous upgrading of the organisation’s internal capabilities (both to perform and to navigate) in order to create value - wellbeing, or “fitness” in ecological terms - for itself and for the business ecosystem of which it is a part. We call this capability to remain aligned, integrated and viable, strategic navigation.9 Although the metaphor of navigation is an apt one, I am not necessarily referring solely to the sort of navigation practiced by Europeans. These navigators begin with a predetermined plan, or course, which they have charted according to certain universal principles. The voyage becomes one of relating their every move to that plan and all effort throughout the voyage is directed to remaining ‘on course’. If unexpected events occur, as they always will, the European navigator must first alter the plan, before responding accordingly.

Similarly beneficial in today’s complex world are the traditional navigational arts of the Trukese sailing masters of Micronesia who begin with a purpose, rather than a plan. Setting off towards a destination, they respond to changing conditions in an instinctive yet impromptu manner. Steering by utilising information provided ‘in the moment’ by the wind, waves, tide and current, fauna, stars, clouds (and even the sound of the water lapping on the side of the boat), their efforts are directed to doing whatever is necessary to reach their destination safely."

From Arturs:
We use in our project in Latvia more "Trukese" than "European" approach and methods.

Why? First of all, European foresight has ben separated from Latvians.

Why? We can and, I think, should discuss reasons.

But what also is important in discourse about the topic is
that rethinking Dr. Hames's strategic navigation and "Trukese" approach we remember such universal basics:

Knowledge, science is the assimilation of the message of freedom placed in the heart of man since Creation.

Belief and freedom help understand foresight.

Dr. Richard Hames

hamesgroup.com - Discourse
a selection of papers and publications "from integral practice fields in leadership development and organizational performance to current affairs, strategic intelligence and civilizational futures"

Creating a Value Proposition With Knowledge management

Patrick Callioni
Points for discussion
Canberra 2 April 2002

23 Jul 2004

Lisbon process in Latvian districts - Livani: entrepreneurship and sustainable community development

Innovative approach to implement the Lisbon strategy

Livani District Council, home page in Latvian

European projects (in Latvian)  
PHARE 2000   Implementing Sustainable Strategies for Livani District Economic Development - Phase I (in Latvian)

"Piesaista Eiropas Savienības naudu Līvānu novada ekonomikas attīstībai

Līvānu novadā uzsākta Eiropas Savienības (ES) PHARE 2001 Pārrobežu sadarbības programmas finansētā projekta "Ilgtermiņa stratēģiju ieviešana Līvānu novada ekonomiskajā attīstībā īstenošana. Pavisam minētajā projektā plānotas trīs fāzes trīs gadu garumā, kuras tiks realizētas, iekļaujoties Baltijas jūras reģiona divpadsmit sadarbības partneru kopīgā projektā. Kā informē Līvānu novada domes attīstības plānotāja Marika Rudzīte, konkrētais projekts ir viena no ES apjomīgās programmas INTERREG sastāvdaļām, un laika posmā līdz 2006. gadam tas paredz virkni aktivitāšu, kuru mērķis ir veicināt ekonomikas attīstību Līvānu novadā. Projekta ietvaros plānota:

piedalīšanās starptautiskās konferencēs ar mērķi gūt zināšanas un pieredzi, izmantojot tās Līvānu novada ekonomiskās attīstības programmas izstrādē, (tādas pašlaik novadā nav);
novada ekonomiskās attīstības programmas izstrāde 1. variantā, kas tiks pilnveidota visu trīs gadu garumā līdz projekta realizācijas beigām;
ekonomiskās attīstības potenciāla analīze jeb novada iedzīvotāju viedokļa apzināšana saistībā ar ekonomiskajām vajadzībām un iespējām;
Līvānu novada teritoriālā plānojuma izstrāde. Šobrīd kopēja teritoriālā plānojuma novadam nav, taču tas ir ļoti nepieciešams kaut vai, piemēram, plānojot apbūves noteikumus, nosakot rūpnieciskās, atpūtas un citu zonu attīstību un to atrašanās vietu;
bukleta par Līvānu novada ekonomiskajām iespējām sagatavošana un iespiešana. Buklets tiks izdots latviešu un angļu valodā un tajā būs noderīga informācija, kas varētu būt saistoša iespējamajiem investoriem;
biznesa inkubatora jeb biznesa atbalsta centra izveide. Projekta ietvaros tiks izveidotas un pilnībā aprīkotas biroja telpas, kas būs pieejamas potenciālajiem uzņēmējiem, kuriem ir biznesa ideja, bet trūkst telpu vai biroja tehnikas biznesa uzsākšanai. Tā būtu īslaicīga palīdzība, kuras laikā uzņēmējiem būs iespējas saņemt kvalificētu ekspertu un biznesa speciālistu konsultācijas biznesa plānu izstrādē, starptautisku kontaktu dibināšanā, grāmatvedības jautājumos un citās jomās. Šī centra celtniecības un iekārtošana plānota 2004. - 2005.gadā.
Tālmācības e-studiju kursu organizēšana profesionālajā saziņā, biznesa plānošanā brīvajam tirgum, datorapmācībā iesācējiem, datorapmācībā lietotājiem, e-komercijā un angļu valodā. Mācības plānots uzsākt šī gada oktobrī, tādēļ interesenti arī no citām pašvaldībām) ir aicināti pieteikties pa tālruni 53 07 254 (Astērija) vai personīgi Līvānu novada domes 1. stāvā, biznesa informācijas centrā;
biznesa zināšanu krātuves veidošana internetā jeb interneta mājas lapas izveide, kurā būtu apkopotas praktiskas zināšanas un padomi, kas uzņēmējiem palīdzētu attīstīt savu biznesu, kā arī dalīties pieredzē.

Projekta kopējais finansējums ir 182 433 eiro, no kura lielāko daļu apmaksās PHARE 2001 Pārrobežu sadarbības programma. Līdzfinansējums paredzēts arī no Rīgas Tehniskās universitātes (10 600 eiro) un Līvānu novada domes (28 600 eiro jeb 15,68% no kopējās summas) līdzekļiem.

Ginta Kraukle, Līvānu novada domes preses sekretāre (t.9879934) 04.09.2003."

Connecting European regions
"Interreg III is a Community initiative which aims to stimulate interregional cooperation in the EU between 2000-06. It is financed under the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).
This new phase of the Interreg initiative is designed to strengthen economic and social cohesion throughout the EU, by fostering the balanced development of the continent through cross-border, transnational and interregional cooperation. Special emphasis has been placed on integrating remote regions and those which share external borders with the candidate countries."

Livani in Superbs project
Superbs, Introduction
"The Superbs project aims at developing a comprehensive description of sustainable urban planning and community development strategies in the Baltic Sea region. The basic assumption is that sustainable development requires that all aspects, i.e. environmental, social, economic etc., of sustainability are addressed at the urban and neighbourhood level.
Model Site: Livani, Latvia
Building a community together
Main issues
1. Sustainable development through jobs creation, economy and social well-being
2. Municipalities in the challenge of sustainability and participatory democracy

Model description

Historically the inhabitants has a long cultural and applied arts tradition. Now, in the period of transition to the market economy and structural changes, the inhabitants of the town face problems of unemployment and social discomfort. The new visions of possible development of the town should be discussed with a broad public participation in order to rise creativity, self consciousness as well as self-reliance of the people in the town. Livani has a functional sewage treatment plant, developed district heating and centralised water supply. The local self-government need to be developed, and new tools and methods should be used to mobilise the intellectual capacity of the society. With sufficient education to start new activities the inhabitants have many new opportunities to develop democracy. Local self-government is pursued by young well educated and active persons, but the changes do not enough support because of the traditional local political structures, and the public organisation are not developed."

Best Practice Conference in Livani, 5-7 March 2004 Sustainable Economic Development, Conference Programme

Supporting Europe in realising the Lisbon objectives

Eurofound: Newsroom - Press release 12 July 2004
"More and better employment, work-life balance, industrial relations and partnership, and social cohesion are the four key themes identified as priority areas for the Foundation’s work over the next four years, as outlined in the new four-year work programme"

European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions

Conceptual framework for knowledge management in (central) government

'Vigorous Knowledge Management'
Dr. Mirko Noordegraaf, Utrecht School of Governance University of Utrecht

Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations, Public Sector Information Policy Directorate

The Netherlands

"Providing an understanding of how knowledge management is viewed is no more than an initial but nonetheless crucial step in reducing the confusion that lies concealed under the label of knowledge management. This confusion cannot be dismissed as merely semantic or conceptual confusion that is capable of being resolved by means of ‘pure’ terminology. The confusion has a paradigmatic nature: knowledge management can be regarded in fundamentally different ways. This means that the building blocks of knowledge management projects, such as specific instruments, have differing content and significance, and that fundamentally different combinations of building blocks are created. Different types of knowledge management exist, namely business management, policy management, strategic management and administrative management, each of which serves different goals."

"Strategic motives
The common factor in the third type of motive is that experts and managers use knowledge management to respond better to ambient developments. In terms of problem-setting it is argued that in present circumstances policy formation is encountering all kinds of obstacles, mainly because the ministry’s ‘grip’ on (knowledge-intensive) ambient developments is loosening. A strengthening of the strategic capacity need not be regarded merely as a strengthening of the ministry's own capacity. In various places, this ambition has an external dimension, namely to strengthen the strategic capacity of the Netherlands as a ‘knowledge-based society’. "

22 Jul 2004

More about Knowledge Management

KnowledgeBoard Technical #1 - Personal Knowledge Management - 28 Jun 2004
"...introductory article grounds Personal Knowledge Management within a well-researched social and technical background..."

I assume that the understanding of the role of knowledge management - personal, organizational, KM in government, etc. - is crucial to setting Lisbon strategy ideas and objectives in everydays's thinking and innovative entrepreneurship.

We used to spend money to learn, discuss political and private life, about cars and driving, history. But for knowledge management? We all are politicians, drivers, historians. But are we also "knowledge managers" or "knowledge workers"? Are we taking more risks to recognize the need to enter into knowledge management initiatives than to drive a car?



In my viewpoint, this is one of the best projects (EU level,36 months) implemented to achieve knowledge objectives of the Lisbon strategy.

We can ask any question about knowledge, you can choose between tens of communities and ways to participate in knowledge management dealing with theory and improving practice.
Useful information

"You cannot teach a man anything; you can only help him find it within himself" Galileo Galilei

Quotation Search - Quote Search - The Quotations Page

In January - June 2004, our team on the project "Latvia towards Knowledge Societies of Europe: new options for entrepreneurship and employment achieving the goals of the Lisbon strategy" (the Latvian Council of Science, Nr. 04.1096) set up a framework for research methodology and practice, and presented their approach and instruments to Latvian science, business and political institutions.

Research objectives and strategies aimed at new knowledge generation on the development of entrepreneurship as a key driver of the Lisbon process , about trends and prospects in research on entrepreneurial foresight topics have been outlined in working presentations on-line. We put ‘to the issue small starlight’, one of many approaches to facilitate knowledge-based economy and knowledge society both in Latvia and Europe. Timeline for the project (small European non-profit enterprise) ends on 31 December, 2010.

129 months programme

EUROPA - The Lisbon Strategy

Know how to climb up 'against the current' ?

The main page for a learning citizen.

12 Jul 2004

Foresight of a European citizen

Entrepreneurial Foresight Basics for Lisbon strategy and process,
bottom-top approach - a learning citizen
Knowledge economyKnowledge society
Futures studiesInnovationLanguage challengeForesight
Political leadership roleEntrepreneurshipInnovative learning societyForesight culture
ValuesLisbon process in Member StatesSustainable developmentKnowledge management

I see our emerging network - for 5, 10 or more Latvian and international users - as a developmental model. Our project team in Latvia has its own understanding, corporate foresight both about the Lisbon strategy objectives and how the designs and outputs of the Brussels programme (2000-2010) could be actualized and creatively used by a citizen (entrepreneurial citizen). Our approach and proposed methods provide one of thousands of ways how a European deals with the Lisbon strategy and process.

Since May 2003, we have attempted to research and navigate towards chosen destination. See about the project: http://uk.geocities.com/arturspuga/EFN/augsa.html
Our ideas and innovative proposals have been discussed in international conferences and workshops, outputs are given in books, on-line presentations, mass media. We try to apply an interdisciplinary approach to the topic, but an opponent may say - this is problem of enormous magnitude and complexity and not for a small team. You cannot reach - the opponent continues - declared objectives of comprehension, research and networking.

Maybe. Nobody can predict the future. We plan for the future.

Therefore, I have decided to start posting with a link to gain insight into
THE POPE JOHN PAUL POETRY ENTITLED "ROMAN TRIPTYCH, MEDITATION" http:=//www.vatican.va/holy_father/john_paul_ii/books/documents/hf_jp-ii_books_20030306_presentation-trittico-romano_en.html which is very important to my family. In the given triptich we see the philosophical background of our way ( also research) and share these basics with other network users: VALUES, THE ETERNAL KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY, ENTREPRENEURSHIP, THE FORESIGHT OF MAN.

The opponent states the Lisbon objectives focused to explore and develop the knowledge-based economy. It's right. Please open Latvia Knowledge Economy Assessment 2002 - 2003, a basic research for all.

In the same time, my 'individual knowledge economy' is based on the application of human know-how, of a set of elements in which individual values, attention, ambitions, behaviour, skills are being combined and integrated to form the systems that are essential for learning, rethinking, creation.

I suppose - addressing a citizen in the Lisbon process - that using certain 'frameworks' (relatively constant or changing) you can both anticipate yourself and interact with other humans, with social actors and environment. See the experimental one - ENREPRENEURIAL FORESIGHT BASICS on the top.

Framework. (Computing Dictionary) In object-oriented systems, a set of classes that embodies an abstract design for solutions to a number of related problems;

(Dream Dictionary) Seeing the framework of a house or other structures in your dream means integrity and your basic, core characteristics. Houses in dreams represents your self and its framework is symbolic of your belief system and the traits and attributes that makes you stand up for yourself. In particular, a wooden framework means a warm and yielding quality, where as a steel framework represents a cold and unyielding quality.

HOW THE INDIVIDUAL'S VALUES, BELIEFS, ATTENTION ( here: a general interest that leads people to want to know more; the faculty or power of mental concentration; the process whereby a person concentrates on some features of the environment to the (relative) exclusion of others ) , AMBITIONS, SKILLS help or hinder him to navigate to Lisbon objectives? Each case is unique, but we will search for some generalizations.

KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY is being discussed moving towards Lisbon objectives.

I would like to include in this post also Ralph W. Emerson's Thoughts on Modern Literature (1840).

"Of the perception now fast becoming a conscious fact, - that there is One Mind, and that all the powers and privileges which lie in any, lie in all; that I as a man may claim and appropriate whatever of true or fair or good or strong has anywhere been exhibited; that Moses and Confucius, Montaigne and Leibnitz are not so much individuals as they are parts of man and parts of me, and my intelligence proves them my own, - literature is far the best expression." http://www.emersoncentral.com/thoughts_on_modern_literature.htm

In our research, the project team found that Jānis Rainis (1865-1929), the most famous Latvian thinker and poet, had expressed his ideas about man, the world and the eternity (but not about God) like ones that given out from the Triptich and from the Thoughts on modern literature. Rainis explained and developed poetry as the new method in Latvia to challenge paradigm towards a New Citizen and New Age.


WORKS OF RAINIS, up to now available only in Latvian on-line.

"THEIR FACE IS FORWARD, AND THEIR HEART IS IN THIS HEAVEN", - R.W.Emerson's voice from America resounds into centuries and also describes the European futurist (one whose chief interests are in what is to come; one who anxiously, eagerly, or confidently looks forward to the future), we would add - foresight professional of his age, Rainis.

The Lisbon strategy is a commitment to renewal. This commitment in Latvia is also the Rainis’s way who had made efforts to spiritually guide a nation in first decades of the 20th century and foreseen a future Latvia in a new, united Europe.

In our opinion, these impressions and interconnections are important for our discourse on the Lisbon process. Inspiration from futures poetry helps researchers to bring knowledge into new constellations.

In the Lisbon context, I see the major challenge of enhancing understanding of the issues related to a citizen’s entrepreneurial mindset. Therefore, we propose ENTREPRENEURIAL FORESIGHT BASICS. This approach also provides opportunities to share knowledge how better translate elements of the Lisbon strategy into forms and actions which make sense to governmental structures and decision-makers, business people and other stakeholders in Member States. Welcome to the blog !