Foresight Methodologies

United Nations Industrial Development Organization
Technology ForeSight Initiative

Foresight Methodologies
Training Module 2
TEXT BOOK

"UNIDO Regional Initiative on Technology Foresight for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Newly Independent States (NIS) aims at responding to the region need for a mid-and long-term development vision as well as for bringing a more technology-oriented focus into the relevant national and regional knowledge-based institutions.(...)

As a component dedicated to strengthening the capabilities in the region to conduct and apply foresight in the decision making process, UNIDO has established training programmes on technology foresight in selected institutions in the CEE/NIS. This action promotes training according to four modules, dedicated to: organizers (module 1), practitioners (module 2), decision makers (module 3) and corporate (module 4).


Training Module 2 should provide to participants an overview of the most used methodologies and practical experience on applying them in foresight exercise. The module dedicated to technology foresight practitioners."


Background analysis: trend extrapolation; analysis of framework; megatrend analysis

Strategic Framework for Scoping Technology Foresight

Brainstorming: a creative problem-solving

Using Expert and Stakeholder Panels in Technology Foresight – Principles and Practice

Scenario Planning

Delphi

Critical Technologies

Technology Roadmapping

Published:
http://www.cybertest.cz/project/tc2003/dokums_publikace/tf-course-textbook-unido_1085_11.pdf

Training Course "Technology Foresight for Practitioners"
Prague, Czech Republic, 6–10 October 2003

Foresight Concepts in the European Commission

Foresight Concepts in the European Commission, by Dr. Werner Wobbe, European Commission, DG Research, Brussels, Belgium
Technikfolgenabschätzung – Theorie und Praxis Nr. 2, 12. Jg., Juni 2003 "The views expressed are purely those of the writer and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission".

Lisbon strategy to day-to-day

Perhaps we achieved the first main goal.
We have discussed how to link the Lisbon strategy to day-to-day tasks and practice.
The Lisbon strategy and issues of the knowledge society have been bridged for our audience.

To promote knowledge sharing, futures thinking, lifelong learning, e-learning, the presentations of the conference will be available at the conference website.

Foresight workshop, 14-15.10.2004, Riga

Workshop agenda

Foresight methods and activities in the Lisbon process

October 14-15, 2004


KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY AND IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LISBON STRATEGY IN EUROPE AND LATVIA

International conference in Riga


Issues
Learning - and debating - online presentations from European foresight projects

(the presentations posted at "Entrepreneurship Foresight
Network" in July - October, 2004)


Knowledge Management and Foresight


Analysing and applying foresight in companies/organizations (interviews, Delphi)

Corporate Foresight in Europe: a first overview, by Patrick Becker
Silvia's Questionnaire, KnowledgeBoard


Activities - how to promote foresight culture (brainstorming)


To start Knowledge Economy Foresight in New Member States: Latvia and Lithuania (brainstorming)


Chairperson:
Dr Arturs Puga, Forward Studies Unit (Latvia)

Forsaita pētījumu galvenās kvalitātes

Forsaita aktivitātes raisās arī Eiropas austrumos.

National and Corporate Foresight Seminar
UNIDO / British Council Foresight Retreat
Moscow, 17th November 2003

Семинар "Национальный и корпоративный форсайт", Москва 17-18 ноября 2003 г.

SPECIĀLI IETEICAM FORSAITA IZPRATNEI UN PIELIETOJUMAM
Dr. Michael Keenan, PREST, IoIR, University of Manchester
"Main Features of National and Regional foresight"

Conference in Vilnius

Development of the Knowledge Society Foresight: European experience
A.Puga, Presentation in
"Knowledge Economy: Luxury or Necessity of the National Strategy ?", International conference, Vilnius, October 7, 2004

Goodnip - Good Practices in Nordic Innovation Policies

The main objective of Good Practices in Nordic Innovation Policies has been to develop a survey and an analysis of Nordic innovation policy instruments that directly or indirectly are targeting small and medium sized enterprises.

"Innovation policies in the Nordic countries are all strongly influenced by the so-called systemic approach to innovation. According to this view technological advance and competence building is characterized by constant interplay and mutual learning between different types of knowledge and actors, including firms, institutes, universities, sources of financing, relevant public agencies and more. This view of technological change and competence development also forms the basis of the GoodNIP reports".

Report 1: Summary and policy recommendations contains a summary of the GoodNIP exercise, presentations of modern innovation theory and innovation policy developments in the Nordic countries, as well as various policy recommendations.

Report 2: Innovation policy trends and rationalities gives a thorough presentation a comparison of contemporary innovation policies and policy instruments in the Nordic countries, historically and contemporary.

A separate chapter discusses how policy development actually takes place in ministries and agencies, and introduces the concept of rationalities - i.e. common mental maps or frameworks of understanding that underpins policy development. This chapter also examine policy learning practices in the Nordic countries and gives some concrete advice on how to improve such learning processes.

Report 3: Innovation policy measures, documents and government structures
• Presentations of the innovation policy governance structures of the Nordic countries
• Summaries of relevant policy documents
• “Datasheets” presenting selected innovation policy measures
• An extended list of policy measures that goes beyond the ones included in the datasheet section

Swedish Technology Foresight

Choosing Strategies for Sweden

A synthesis report from the Swedish Technology Foresight project, 2004

Inspiration for Innovation

Swedish Prosperity and Technology at the Crossroads, June 22, 2004, Brussels
The latest results from the recently completed Swedish Technology Foresight Programme were presented at this seminar. The new format of the second Swedish Technology Foresight Programme discussed.

A synthesis report, 2000
The Steering Committee of the Swedish Technology Foresight project:
"In our work with future-oriented issues, the process itself and the dedication of the participants have been at least as important as the written reports. These reports will now serve as valuable background material for all those who have
a responsibility and an interest in future-oriented issues in their daily work."


Presentation at "Our Future in the Making" Stockholm, November 25, 2002 By Göran Pagels-Fick, Chairman of the Foresight Methodology Group of the Swedish Technology Foresight Programme

Foresight in Ukraine

Foresight - Science - British Council Ukraine

British Council is closely co-operating with the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the University of Manchester, PREST to foster the following projects in Ukraine:

Technology Vision 2020 for Ukraine

Institutional capacity building for technology management and innovation in Ukraine

Investment Promotion Programme for Ukraine

EVENTS ON FORESIGHT IN UKRAINE

13.09.2004 – 30.09.2004. Проведення циклу семінарів-тренінгів «Програми дистанційного навчання з курсу «Технологічне передбачення». Проектування курсу виконано спеціалістами УЦДО. Семінари проводяться в рамках проекту UNIDO і є безкоштовними для українських слухачів.
Технологічне передбачення

Краткое описание
Технологическое предвидение – самый сложный элемент в процессе развития технологии. Оно обеспечивает вклады в формулирование политики и стратегий, руководящие развитием инфраструктуры технологии. В Украине возрастает потребность в развитии дистанционной учебной программы технологического предвидения, как для студентов, так и для тех граждан Украины, которые подключены (должны подключиться) к выполнению Национальной программы технологического предвидения. Целью этого проекта является создание дистанционной учебной программы технологического предвидения, использования возможностей Украинского центра дистанционного образования для построения и укрепления возможностей для тех украинцев, которые работают или будут работать в сфере технологического предвидения.

Foresight in the World (2000)

THE PROCEEDING OF INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT March 7-8, 2000, Tokyo

Sessions
Current Foresight Activities in the World
Multi-country Foresight Activities
Lessons for Foresight Newcomers
Foresight by Mode 2 approach (Integration of Socio-economic Needs into Technology Foresight
Third Generation Foresight - Integrating the
Socio-economic Dimension)

"Conclusion
The following common perceptions were seen lying beneath the sessions.

Developing countries, as well as advanced ones, recognize the necessity and usefulness of technology foresight.

The definition of technology foresight which the OECD defines as "the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science and technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits" is almost the same for countries concerned, although it varies slightly from country to country.

Currently, technology foresight is developing dynamically, encouraging many countries to work out an optimal combination of techniques. It is essential for countries carrying out foresight activities to exchange opinions and information with one another. In this sense, the conference was extremely significant.

In developing foresight activities, the OECD initiative, or the 1994 professional conference, played a critical role in bringing us to the second generation of foresight. Today, technology foresight is developing beyond the OECD area on a global scale. Many countries are integrating socioeconomic factors into foresight to utilize it as an effective policy tool."

understanding Knowledge Management in the school

Barbara Friehs, Knowledge Management in Educational Settings
"The non-profit-sector – schools are part of it – has not been of major interest for knowledge management interventions so far."


I find the contribution to be of value and benefit to all parties - to rethink KM issues in schools of tomorrow starting today.

Investing efficiently in education and training: an imperative for Europe

...making the European Union the leading knowledge-based economy in the world would be possible only if education and training functioned as factors of economic growth, research and innovation, competitiveness, sustainable employment and social inclusion and active citizenship.


The Lisbon goals and the ensuing objectives agreed for education and training remain more valid then ever. They were set by Member States themselves for themselves. This Communication does not intend to provide indications of what should be done in any particular country, and issues raised in it are clearly more important in some countries than in others. The core responsibility to deliver on the agreed goals lies with the education and training authorities in the current and future Member States. It is clear that if regions and countries fail to invest more, and more efficiently in their people they see their economic and social performance - and those of Europe as a whole - fall behind.

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION Investing efficiently in education and training: an imperative for Europe
Brussels, 10.01.2003 COM(2002) 779 final

SEEECN

Knowledge Management Networking for Improving Public Administration

United Nations Online Network in Public Administration and Finance, KM Networking Experience

"From “what a knowledge society is and why it is necessary”, towards “how to become a knowledge society?”, knowledge management is the foundation.

What should be included in the KM “to do” list:

- To develop a vision and a strategy for a knowledge - based organization is a must.

- The mindset needs to be changed from managing information in the traditional way to the modern way which leads to effective knowledge management systems, namely, IT supported systems.

- It is pivotal to develop incentives and personal development opportunities for information management in an organization.

- To manage knowledge via networking."

Discover www.unpan.org

RAINIS - 75 septembri 1929 - 2004

1913
Katra patiesība top uzņemta tikai ar jūtām. Patiesība ir jūtu lieta. Arī zinātniskā. Uz to dibinājas jaunu zinātnisku atziņu neatzīšana un cīņa pret viņām, kur taču vajdzētu domāt, ka zinātniekus, kuri darbojas tikai ar prātu, vajdzētu tūliņ pārliecināt arī jauniem prāta slēdzieniem. Bet prāts nevar būt pārliecināts arī par 2X2=4, kad jūtas viņam to nejauj. Cilvēku nevar pat par viņa paša labumu pārliecināt, kad neaizkustina viņa jūtas. Jūtas ir kūtras, bet valda. Tādēļ jārunā uz jūtām, tādēļ vajdzīga retorika un poēzija.


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Visu savu zināšanu savest sistēmā padara zinātāju par vienpusīgu un par zinātnieku. To var vēl tehniķi zinātnēs, bet ne dzejnieki, arī ne dzejnieki zinātnēs. Un īstam lielam dzejniekam jābūt arī dzejniekam zinātnēs. Viņa aforistiskās zināšanas tādēļ vēl nebūs nevērtīgas un nesistemātiskas, jo dzīves nopilnotos laikmetos un visas dzīves kopumā citu acīs, t. i., pēc nāves, būs atrodama sistēma, tikai lielāka, dziļāka un plašāka nekā zinātnieku tehniskās sistēmas. Sistēmu vienotājs pats gars.

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Zināšana neapspiež radīšanu, jo viņa dod vielu radīšanai, un viņa radītāju - spēku - jau pirms tam ved neskaitāmās jaunās situācijās, kuras viņu dzen visu aplūkot un novērst no vienmēr jaunām pusēm, un, galvenais, sevi salīdzinot ar novēroto, papildināties un augt.

about Entrepreneurial Foresight Basics (Forward Studies project)

EFB, EFN for innovative learning
ppt format
Collection of papers and presentations of the international conference "Baltic Dynamics 2004 - Innovation and development of knowledge-based entrepreneurship" (September 9-12, 2004, Riga, Latvia) is available from CD (Latvian Tehnological Center).

See the presentation swf file